Economic PerspectiveMarkets don’t wait for certainty

Maintaining discipline in uncertain markets

I recently spoke with a group of business owners about managing captive portfolios in volatile markets. Although the discussion focused on captives, the same principles apply to any investor facing uncertainty.

Markets can change quickly, headlines can be distracting, and emotions can lead to poor decisions. That is why volatile periods call for discipline, a clear understanding of risk, and a long-term perspective.

What matters when markets get noisy

The first quarter of 2026 has provided a clear example of why that discipline matters. The year has been heavily influenced by geopolitics, particularly the conflict in the Middle East. Markets have had to process rapidly changing headlines, shifting sentiment, and broader concerns around global stability.

We’ve seen that show up in three key ways:

• Increased volatility
• Higher energy prices
• Expectations that interest rate cuts will be delayed

Geopolitical shocks often create sharp, short-term market reactions. Historically, many of those reactive shifts fade once uncertainty clears and markets reprice according to the new reality. In just the past two weeks, markets have rallied to new highs on positive negotiations and stronger-than-expected corporate earnings.

Important developments such as energy prices, labor market trends, and diverging global interest-rate paths will always be worth monitoring. But successful investing rarely depends on reacting to every new variable in real time. It depends on understanding which developments truly matter and responding within a disciplined framework.

“A disciplined process helps ensure portfolios are built to withstand uncertainty rather than react to it.”

Elizabeth Urish, Founding Partner and Managing Director, Steel Tower Investments

What it all means for the portfolio

For families and captive entities alike, the objective is the same: preserve capital, manage risk, and make sound decisions through changing market conditions. A disciplined process helps ensure portfolios are built to withstand uncertainty rather than react to it.

In moments of rapid change, we believe diversification is more important than ever. We rely on our thoughtful, deliberate investment process to ensure our portfolios aren’t dependent on any single scenario but rather are set up to thrive in uncertain times and fast-moving conditions. Periods of market volatility can create discomfort, but they also create opportunity: more honest conversations not only about risk and portfolio management, but also about taxes, estate planning, liquidity, and broader financial goals. Those conversations often lead to better decisions.

Ignoring the noise

Periods like these can feel noisy—but noise is not the same as risk.

The greatest value rarely comes from reacting to every headline. It comes from staying disciplined, making thoughtful decisions, and keeping the long term in focus.

For business owners and complex families, those decisions are rarely isolated. The best outcomes often depend on aligning investment strategy, tax planning, estate decisions, liquidity, and long-term goals. Steel Tower helps clients coordinate the full financial picture so important decisions work together.

To learn more about how Steel Tower can empower your wealth, contact us.

DISCLOSURES

Important Disclosures: The information included in this document is for general, informational purposes only. Any investment involves some degree of risk, and different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, including loss of principal. It should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment, strategy or allocation (including those recommended by Steel Tower Investments) will be profitable or equal the corresponding indicated or intended results or performance level(s). Past performance of any security, indices, strategy or allocation may not be indicative of future results. The historical and current information as to rules, laws, guidelines or benefits contained in this document is a summary of information obtained from or prepared by other sources. It has not been independently verified, but was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Steel Tower Investments does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and does not assume liability for any errors in information obtained from or prepared by these other sources.

Investment advisory services offered through UP Strategic Wealth Investment Advisors LLC doing business as Steel Tower Investments. 
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